Oil Prices Rise as Middle East Supply Risks Persist on September 29

Oil prices rose again on Tuesday, September 29, as the war in the Middle East kept supply risks in focus even while some regional exports recovered. The market remains unusually sensitive to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow route for a large share of the world's seaborne oil.

Oil prices on September 29

Brent crude traded around $105.04 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate around $92.24 at 10:22 GMT, according to Reuters' September 29 market report. Those are time-stamped prices, not a closing quote. Both benchmarks were headed for substantial monthly gains after the conflict disrupted energy trade and lifted the risk premium paid for near-term supply.

Traders are weighing two opposing developments. The prospect of a prolonged disruption to Gulf shipping supports prices. At the same time, any recovery in exports can ease the immediate shortage and limit the size of a rally. That tension explains why prices can move sharply on news of talks, attacks, tanker movements or production changes.

Why the Strait of Hormuz matters

The route connects Gulf producers to customers in Asia and beyond. A disruption affects more than the price of a barrel: shipping costs, insurance, refinery planning and delivery schedules can all change. Countries that import fuel may feel the pressure through transport and industrial costs, although local prices also depend on currency movements, taxes, subsidies and domestic supply.

For Nigeria, higher international oil prices can lift the value of crude exports, but that does not automatically translate into cheaper fuel or a stronger household budget. Production volumes, government receipts, exchange rates and refined product costs determine the eventual effect. Treat a headline Brent price as one input, rather than a complete picture of public finances.

What to watch next

The next price direction will depend on verified flows through the Gulf, the durability of restored exports, and whether diplomacy reduces the chance of further disruption. Claims of a breakthrough should be checked against concrete changes in shipping and supply. The market's reaction can also reverse as new information arrives.

This report reflects information available on September 29, 2026. Prices quoted above were observed at 10:22 GMT and may have changed since publication. For a broader account of the diplomatic backdrop, read our latest coverage.